Gray predicts one hurricane likely to hit U.S. coastline

In his most recent Atlantic hurricane prediction for the 2004 season, Prof. William Gray of Colorado State University says there is a 71% probability of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline this year.
Gray builds on earlier reports forecasting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, now predicting 8 hurricanes, 14 named storms, 60 named storm days and 35 hurricane days. As well, the Atlantic basin could see three major hurricanes (registering three to five on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
The 50-year average (1950-2000) is 5.9 hurricanes and 9.6 named storms, with 2.3 hurricanes ranked as major. An average year sees 24.5 hurricane days and 49.1 named storm days.
“We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2004 to be about 145% of the long-term average,” the forecast notes “The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 40% above the long-period average.”
The Gray team has issued forecasts for the past 21 years, but relies on dating going back 52 years. This year’s forecast follows on a trend of high-activity years since 1995. While the forecast takes into effect the El Nino conditions present, note is made that there is no scientific basis for concluding the upswing in hurricane activity since 1995 is the results of man-made greenhouse gases.