Manitoba issues 2015 flood outlook

On Friday, the province of Manitoba issued its 2015 February Flood Outlook, which found that there is a moderate to major risk of overland flooding on the Assiniboine River.

This first outlook estimates the potential for overland flooding is normal to above normal in the western areas of the province and normal to below normal in the rest of the province, said a release from Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation. The second outlook at the end of March will further define the flood potential.

“The potential for overland flooding is normal to above normal on the Assiniboine, Qu’Appelle and Saskatchewan rivers and the headwaters of the Souris River due to normal to above-normal water content in snow and above-normal soil moisture levels at freeze-up,” the release said. “The potential for overland flooding is below normal in the Red and Pembina river basins, the Roseau River and the Interlake region. The potential for overland flooding is normal to below normal for the Winnipeg River basin and near normal for the rest of the province.”

Specifically, the outlook shows the risk of overland flooding for the unfavourable weather scenario in the following watersheds:

• Red River – minor risk;

• Pembina River – minor risk;

• Roseau River – minor risk;

• Assiniboine River – moderate to major risk;

• southwest region – moderate to major risk;

• Interlake region and the Fisher River – minor to moderate risk;

• eastern region and the Winnipeg River – minor to moderate risk; and

• northern Manitoba/The Pas regions and the Saskatchewan, Carrot and Swan rivers – moderate risk.

A backgrounder from Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation said that flood potential is affected by the amount of additional snow and rain; frost depth at the time of run-off; the timing and rate of the spring thaw; and the timing of peak flows in Manitoba, the United States and other provinces.

“Delayed thaw and spring rainstorms could result in rapid snow melt, aggravating overland flooding and increasing tributary flows,” the release said. “A single precipitation event similar to the rainstorm that occurred in the summer of 2014 could change the flood outlook significantly.”

The province also said that it continues to work with municipal emergency management teams to review existing emergency response plans and information sharing through conference calls and flood information seminars in Morris, Brandon and Selkirk.

In the last year, 121 projects have been approved with signed agreements, 218 projects were completed with $7.1 million in grant funding provided and 22 projects are underway. Since programs started in late 2010, 699 projects have been approved with signed agreements and 569 projects were completed with $23.5 million in grants provided.