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Preliminary forecast for 2016 Atlantic hurricane season issued


December 18, 2015   by Canadian Underwriter


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Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), part of Aon Benfield Research’s academic and industry collaboration, is forecasting 13 named storms, five hurricanes and two major (Category 3+) hurricanes between the months of June and November in 2016.

Tropical Storm Risk is forecasting 13 named storms, five hurricanes and two major (Category 3+) hurricanes between June and November, 2016

TSR’s Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea issued their preliminary forecast for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season this week. Their projected activity is expected to be about 20% below the long-range norm since 1950, but only 15% below the more recent 2006-2015 norm, TSR said in a press release. TSR is part of Aon Benfield Research’s academic and industry collaboration; Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc, is a reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor.

The report specifies one primary factor as to why a slightly below-normal hurricane season has been forecast: current forecast computer model projections indicate that trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and the tropical North Atlantic will be close to normal from July through September. The release said that the “near-neutral trade winds coincide with the expectation of neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions from July through September 2016 as forecast by a consensus of models from the International Research Institute.” [click image below to enlarge]

The projected activity is expected to be about 20% below the long-range norm since 1950, but only 15% below the more recent 2006-2015 norm

However, TSR stressed that “uncertainties in 2016 trade wind speeds at this extended lead time are large given unknowns surrounding ENSO and future sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.”

Saunders and Lea currently project that there is a 25% probability that the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) Index will be above average, a 34% likelihood it will be near normal, and a 41% chance it will be below normal. The ACE Index is equal to the sum of the squares of six hourly maximum sustained wind speeds (in knots) for all systems while they are at least tropical storm strength.


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