March 2, 2017 by Canadian Underwriter
The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR) will be holding a webinar on “physics” versus climate models as related to extreme rainfall on March 24.
The ICLR announced the webinar, titled Practical issues in updating IDF curves for future climate: “Physics” vs climate models, on Thursday. It will be held from 10 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. EST.
Information from the ICLR noted that the speaker will be Slobodan P. Simonovic, who is “globally recognized for his unique interdisciplinary research” in systems analysis and the development of deterministic and stochastic simulations, optimization, multi-criteria analysis and “other decision-making methodologies” for addressing societal, technological and environmental issues. His main contributions include modelling risk and the resilience of complex systems and his applications include water resources management, hydrology, energy, climate change and public infrastructure from a sustainable development perspective.
The information from ICLR noted that direct use of global climate models and statistical downscaling procedures results in a range of values for updated intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves that “immediately raises the question of which one should be used in practice.” At the same time, the information said, various discussions were pointing to a “more robust” alternative approach of using direct scaling of temperature – an approach based on “physics” (the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship).
One of the main objectives of the presentation is to provide comparative analysis of an IDF updating tool – developed at Western University in London, Ont. and hosted by the ICLR and in the public domain since March 2015, which has over 700 registered users and average 7,000 sessions per year – and the “physics” based approach of direct temperature scaling for Canada. The other main objective is to provide more practical, or engineering-based, guidance on how to use updated IDF relationships.