Lloyd’s predicts World Cup winner based on insurable value

France will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup, according to a news release issued by Lloyd’s of London on Tuesday.

Lloyd’s partnered with the Centre for Economics and Business Research to rank this year’s teams—and pick a winner—based on the collective insurable value of their players.

France leads the pack with £1.4 billion in insurable value, followed by England (£1.17 billion) and Brazil (£1.1 billion).

The collective value of all teams in the tournament is estimated to be £13.1 billion. Group G, which includes Belgium, England, Panama and Tunisia, has the highest insurable value in the tournament, at more than £2.3 billion.

The research also found that forwards are the most valuable players (representing £19.2 million in insurable value, on average), midfielders comprise the largest share of a team’s insurable value (38%), and players between the ages of 18-24 have the highest insurable value (an average of £20 million).

In 2014, Lloyd’s correctly predicted that Germany would win the World Cup.

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This story was originally published by Canadian Insurance Top Broker.