2015 sees record number of Category 4 or 5 global tropical cyclones: Aon Benfield

A record number of global tropical cyclones that have reached Category 4 or 5 intensity have developed in the Northern Hemisphere this year, according to Impact Forecasting’s Global Catastrophe Recap report for October.

Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development team, reported that 22 such cyclones occurred across the globe in 2015, breaking the previous record of 18 set in 2004. Most of these storms this year have been in the Pacific Ocean, which is to be expected given the very warm sea surface temperatures that have been enhanced by El Nino’s intensity, Impact Forecasting said in a press release on Thursday.

“October ended as one of the most active, and costly, months of 2015 for natural disasters,” said Steve Bowen, Impact Forecasting associate director and meteorologist, in the release. “Many of the major weather events – such as record-breaking tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean, the historic South Carolina floods, and deepening global droughts – were clearly impacted by the current El Nino’s growing fingerprint on global weather patterns. Given the increasing intensity of El Nino, it is expected that these impacts will become even more defined around the world as we enter the boreal late autumn and winter months.”

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Hurricane Patricia became the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere when its maximum sustained wind speeds reached 325 kilometres per hour and made landfall in Mexico. Preliminary economic damage was estimated at US$300 million but, given low insurance penetration in the hardest-hit areas, insured losses were expected to be negligible, the release said.

In total, global catastrophe losses in October were expected to top US$10 billion, according to the report. A good chunk of that is the expected US$2 billion minimum economic cost of the South Carolina & eastern U.S. floods, which places the event as “one of the top 10 costliest non-tropical cyclone flood events in the country since 1980,” the release said. Public and private insurers have already reported more than US$400 million in payouts.

In Canada, a deep low-pressure system brought destructive winds to portions of the Prairie provinces on Oct. 11 and 12, the report noted. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba were all affected as gusts up to 120 km/h were recorded. There were widespread reports of downed trees and power lines as well as light structural damage and damage to vehicles. At least 5,000 power outages were noted, the report noted. Economic and insured losses were both expected to reach into the tens of millions of (U.S.) dollars.

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Other global natural disasters in October include the following:

• Typhoon Mujigae became the costliest tropical cyclone of 2015 after making separate landfalls in China and the Philippines. At least 22 people were killed. Damage was extensive in China’s Hainan and Guangdong provinces as the government listed economic losses at US$4.2 billion;

• A major magnitude-7.5 earthquake struck northern Afghanistan on Oct. 26, shaking a large swath of the country as well as portions of Tajikistan, Pakistan and India with at least 403 people confirmed dead;

• Super Typhoon Koppu made landfall in the Philippines as a strong Category 4 typhoon, killing at least 58 people and injuring 83 others;

• Major Hurricane Joaquin lashed the Bahamas before tracking past Bermuda. Total economic losses were estimated at US$100 million, while the insurance industry does not expect insured losses to exceed US$50 million; and

• Severe thunderstorms in the French Riviera impacted areas from Monaco to Frejus, prompting massive flash flooding. The French insurance industry expected payouts to reach up to US$720 million from 60,000 claims. Total economic losses were expected to exceed US$1 billion.