44% of countries measured at risk of terrorist attack: Aon

A continued threat of a terrorist attack or political violence exists according to an updated mapping of 200 countries and territories globally, highlighting a risk to global business growth.

Forty-four percent of countries measured in Aon’s 2013 Terrorism and Political Violence Map have an identifiable risk of terrorist attacks.

Political violence and terrorism in 200 countries is measured as a means to help companies assess the risk levels of exchange transfer, political violence and terrorism. Each country is assigned a threat level, starting at negligible and rising through low, medium, high and severe.

“Terrorism is having an increasing impact on today’s global organizations and terrorist attacks are now regarded as a foreseeable risk,” Neil Henderson, head of Aon risk solutions’ crisis management terrorism team, noted. “An attack not only on, but near an organization’s premises can result in human casualties, property damage, business interruption, legal liability issues and long term damage to brand and reputation.”

The data, according to Aon, shows:

• 11 upgrades (increased risk ratings), including Argentina, Egypt and Jordan.
• 19 downgrades (decreased risk ratings), including Germany, Italy and the U.K..
• The worst countries affected are Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, Syria, Thailand and the Yemen.
• Europe has the most positive regional outlook, with 47% of the countries with lowered risk ratings this year. This reflects receding civil unrest associated with the financial and economic crises. Limited incidents of terrorism outside of Greece and Northern Ireland also accounted for lowered risk scores.
• Lingering after-effects of the Arab Spring on regional security and stability remain evident. The Middle East is the most unstable region, with 64% of its countries attaining high or severe risk ratings, reflecting terrorism, unrest and conflict risks.
• The Middle East and North Africa region witnessed the highest proportion of countries with a terrorism and sabotage peril, at 85%.

“Despite 19 countries showing improved terrorism and political violence ratings, including the U.K. and Germany, data and analysis reflected by the map suggest continued and growing awareness is needed for businesses looking to expand,” according to Aon.

The different forms of political violence most likely to be encountered by businesses are:

• Terrorism and sabotage
• Strikes, riots, civil commotion and malicious damage to property
• Insurrection, revolution, rebellion, mutiny, coup d’etat, war and civil war.

“The global economic crisis, shifting geopolitical balances and two years of unusually high levels of civil upheaval present challenges and opportunities for businesses looking to expand,” Henry Wilkinson, head of the intelligence and analysis practice at Risk Advisory, noted. 

“North and West Africa and the Middle East stand out as regions of increasing risk,” he added. “Civil wars in Libya and Syria in particular have contributed to violent risks in nearby countries. Egypt returns to the highest risk rating this year due to persistent civil tumult, political instability and terrorism. While Northern Europe has seen some improvements, evident in the U.K.’s improved rating, fiscal and economic pressures mean businesses in Southern European countries still face a higher level of risk associated with civil disruption.”