50% chance of near-normal hurricane season: NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has called for a 50% chance of a near-normal season, according to the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.
The outlook also indicates a 25% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season, according to the NOAA.
There is an estimated 70% probability that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will include nine to 14 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index range is between 65% and 130% of the median, the NOAA finds.
The ACE index accounts for the collective intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during a season. A value above 117% of the median reflects an above-normal season and a value below 75% reflects a below-normal season.
 “This outlook reflects the ongoing conditions associated with the high-activity era that began in 1995, combined with the uncertainty regarding the possible development of El Niño and/or whether cooler-than average sea surface temperatures will persist in the eastern tropical Atlantic,” the NOAA notes.