Canadian Underwriter
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Above-average Atlantic hurricane season predicted


May 20, 2004   by Canadian Underwriter


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On the eve of the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirms expectations of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year.
The outlook is for 12-15 tropical storms, with six to eight deteriorating into hurricanes. In the past, similar seasons have seen two to three hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.
“NOAA’s 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 50 percent probability of an above-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season,” says NOAA director David Johnson.
On a brighter note, the NOAA is predicting a near-normal year for Pacific cyclone activity, with the possibility for four to five tropical cyclones. This could include one hurricane-level event.
This year’s forecast was created using new technology, known as the Interactive Forecast Preparation System/Graphical Editor (IFPS/GFE).
The hurricane season traditionally lasts until the end of November.


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