AIR Worldwide estimates European windstorm Christian insured losses up to 2.3 billion euros

Insured losses from windstorm Christian, also know as St. Jude, will be between 1.5 billion euros and 2.3 billion euros, according to a new estimate from catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide.

The majority of those losses have occurred in Denmark and Germany, although significant insured losses also occurred in the Netherlands, France, United Kingdom and Sweden, the firm said Thursday.

“Windstorm Christian smashed into southern Britain on Monday, October 28, knocking down trees, flooding lowlands, and disrupting travel over land, sea, and air,” Gerhard Zuba, senior principal scientist at AIR Worldwide explained in a statement.

“Gusts of 160 km/h (100 mph) were reported on the Isle of Wight in southern England, and waves greater than 7.5 meters (25 feet) were reported elsewhere along the coast.”

AIR reports that the storm then moved north and east, hitting France, the Netherlands, northern Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and Russia with similar force as in the U.K., and across the Baltic Sea to Latvia and Estonia, where the storm weakened.

“October is usually a quiet month for windstorms in Europe,” Zuba noted. “Nevertheless, the overall atmospheric conditions were favorable for storms to impact the U.K. and northern Europe.

“The damage from storms during this time of year can be more severe than storms that develop later because many trees still have leaves on their branches, making branches more likely to break off and become airborne missiles, and also making trees more likely to topple. Further, Christian, powered by the temperature gradient between cold polar air and warm subtropical air, strengthened as it traveled over the UK, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany,” he added.

Christian was similar to a powerful storm in October 1987, which struck the southeast coast of the U.K., AIR noted. However, Christian never reached the strength of that storm, despite its high wind speeds.

Residential and commercial structures in the affected areas saw relatively minor wind damage, and non-structural damage was observed by AIR to roofs, cladding and other external building components, the firm said. Wind-borne debris also caused damage to windows, while heavier damage occurred from trees falling on buildings, cars and power lines, the firm added.

Significant damage also occurred to agricultural buildings in parts of Germany that were affected by the windstorm, AIR reported.

“While the size of individual claims is expected to be relatively low, the overall volume of claims is expected to be significant due to the size of the affected area,” it said. “AIR expects that industry insured loss in Denmark will be highest, followed by Germany, the Netherlands, France, and the U.K.”

AIR’s loss estimates reflect:

• Insured physical damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, auto), both structures and their contents.
• Losses to insured forestry in Norway, Sweden, and Finland

Loss estimates do not reflect:

• Business interruption and additional living expenses (ALE) for residential claims, for all modeled countries except the UK
• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses from non-modeled perils, including coastal surge and inland flooding
• Demand surge (AIR’s demand surge function is not triggered by this event)