Canadian Hurricane Centre predicts average year for storms

Canada’s hurricane forecasting agency says 2012 will see average storm conditions, with only “one or two” tropical cyclone events affecting the Atlantic provinces.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) predicts that storm frequency will reflect predictions of near normal hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). The NOAA forecasts between nine and 15 named storms, four to eight hurricanes and between one and three major hurricanes for the season.

“NOAA is predicting that this year will see near normal levels of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean, meaning that we expect to see levels of tropical storm activity in the overall Atlantic Ocean that are similar to what we’ve seen in recent years,” says Bob Robichaud, warning preparedness meteorologist with the CHC. He adds that in an average year, the CHC responds to four or five tropical cyclone events with one or two of those affecting Canadian soil.

Hurricane activity depends on a number of factors, according to the CHC. These include water temperatures, the presence or absence of an El Niño effect and atmospheric pressure. Warmer water temperatures tend to support or sustain hurricane development, and El Niño produces conditions that weaken tropical storm development.