Consortium predicts another active hurricane season for 2005

Following on 2004’s record Atlantic hurricane season, more storms are brewing for 2005, says Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of researchers sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance and Crawford & Co.
TSR’s extended outlook for 2005 suggests 2005 will see U.S. landfalling hurricane activity at 155% of average.
The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has a 76% probability of producing above-average hurricane activity, and an 18% chance of near-normal activity. TSR predicts 14 tropical storms for the whole Atlantic basin, with eight turning into hurricanes and four becoming intense hurricanes.
TSR also forecasts 67% chance of above-average U.S. landfalling hurricane activity, with 22% chance of a near-normal season. Four tropical storms are expected to hit the U.S., with two worsening into hurricanes. The Caribbean and Lesser Antilles is forecast to see two tropical storms with one hurricane.
“The two main climate factors influencing the TSR hurricane forecast for 2005 are the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds which blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and the temperature of the sea waters between west Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop,” a TSR release notes. Trade winds influence the “spinning up” of storms, while water temperature provides heat and moisture to power storms with trade winds expected to be weaker and water temperatures warmer, this provides fuel for tropical storm activity.