Canadian Underwriter

Deep learning, autonomy will accelerate birth of new US$1 trillion autonomous mobility services market by 2030: KPMG

November 25, 2016   by Canadian Underwriter

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A new “mobility services market” tied to products and services related to autonomy, mobility and connectivity will be worth well over US$1 trillion globally by 2030, according to a new report from KPMG.

Self driving vehicleDeep learning – an advanced form of artificial intelligence and dynamic way of computerized decision-making – will drive significant change for autonomous cars and for the automotive and transportation industry, the audit, tax and advisory firm said in a statement released earlier this week.

The report, titled I see. I think. I drive. (I learn), notes that the direct impacts of deep learning will revolutionize the nature of doing business for automakers. “Deep learning is accelerating autonomy faster than anyone could’ve imagined, and it has far-reaching implications for the industry and societal mobility as a whole,” said Gary Silberg, KPMG’s national automotive leader. “If a car can’t learn, then it’s still reliant on millions and millions of lines of code, with such complexity and ambiguity, that full autonomy wouldn’t be achievable for many years to come.”

Silberg said in the statement that he feels that it is a “new era in automotive product development and manufacturing – one that emphasizes the car’s nervous system, which includes computer ‘brain,’ sensors, controls, driver interaction and data storage even more than the powertrain. This is an enormous shift in organizational structure, talent acquisition and operating model for most car manufacturers.”

According to KPMG, this is a “critical juncture” in the history of the auto industry – as original equipment manufacturers and tech companies “face off in a war for specialized talent. People with deep learning expertise are in short supply and the pool of experts among those specialists is even smaller. This makes it difficult for traditional automakers to compete with tech leaders. In addition, universities cannot keep pace with the autonomous driving market demands for talent.”

In the report, KPMG identifies the key developments for automakers to contemplate if they are to survive:

  • Vehicle operation and ownership is changing – With deep learning, autonomy and mobility, car ownership is shifting from individually-owned vehicles to shared driving experiences, increasing consumer focus on mobility and transportation on demand;
  • Mobility services will be a major new market and therefore a critical battleground – By 2030, a new mobility services segment worth well over US$1 trillion dollars will emerge for products and services related to autonomy, mobility, and connectivity.
  • Most car companies won’t simply be automakers anymore – As deep learning accelerates autonomy, carmakers will make choices whether to remain pure automakers or to become mobility service providers, or both;
  • The “nervous system” will become the center of the vehicle design – Automotive product development and manufacturing is changing to emphasize the car’s nervous system, which includes computer “brain,” sensors, controls, driver interaction and data storage even more than the powertrain; and
  • Talent is the new arms race – There are precious few people capable of building deep learning systems and “automotive players” are already scrambling to find them.