Don’t count on interest rate hikes this year or next

TORONTO – TD Securities is predicting the Bank of Canada will keep its key interest rate on hold through to the end of next year.

The forecast builds on the firm’s forecast last week that the central bank would not hike its key interest rate target this year.

Andrew Kelvin, TD’s senior Canada rates strategist, says recent economic data suggests that if the Bank of Canada moves in 2019, it is more likely to be a rate cut than an increase.

In keeping its key rate on hold last week, the Bank of Canada pointed to “increased uncertainty” about the timing of future rate hikes following the economy’s abrupt deceleration in late 2018.

The central bank said it had been expecting a drop in household spending as well as weak numbers for exports and investment in oil-producing provinces in the fourth quarter, but the slowdown was “sharper and more broadly based” than it had anticipated.