Four in 10 survey respondents predict epidemic in next 10 years: World Bank

Global health and epidemics are among the top three concerns of nearly a third of respondents to a recent survey, with nearly one in four respondents suggesting they do not believe the global community is prepared to respond to an epidemic such as Ebola.

The World Bank Group released Thursday results of a survey, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, of respondents in the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Japan.

In the poll, interviews were conducted with some respondents defined (on the basis of education and how closely they follow current events) as “opinion elites,” and responses from those “elites” were broken out separately.

Respondents were given a list of 10 issues and asked which three of those issues were of “greatest concern” to them.

Sixty per cent of respondents (57% of the “elites”) listed terrorism as either their first, second or third choice, 40% of all respondents (and of “elites”) listed climate change and 31% of respondents (27% of “elites”) listed global health and epidemics.

Nearly a third (31%) of respondents listed migration and refugees as either their top, second or third most pressing concern while the same percentage said it was military conflict in the middle east. The other issues on the list were global poverty, human rights abuses, Russian conflicts with its neighbours, global inequality and territorial tensions between China and its neighbours.

The poll, titled Preparing for the Next Outbreak: Public Views on Global Infectious Diseases, was conducted June 15-24 in consultation with the Washington, D.C. World Bank Group.

Respondents were asked to indicate the extent to which they agree that the “global community will experience an epidemic in the next 10 years.” Responses were on a scale of one to five, where one means “strongly disagree” and five means “strongly agree.”

Forty per cent of respondents (50% of “elites”) either agreed or strongly agreed, 40% of respondents (33% of “elites”) were neutral while 19% of respondents (17% of “elites”) either disagreed or strongly disagreed.

They were asked to indicate the extent to which they “agree that the global community is prepared to respond to another epidemic like Ebola.”

More than a third (37%) either agreed or strongly agreed, 39% were neutral and 24% either disagreed or strongly disagreed.

“This survey shows that the public sees global infectious disease outbreaks as a serious threat, and they want leaders to take action to prepare for the next potentially deadly epidemic,” World Bank Group president Jim Yong Kim stated in a press release. “This heightened concern also translates into strong support for investments to strengthen health systems in vulnerable countries, as any country with a weak health system puts both its own citizens and the entire world at risk.”

The pollster gave respondents a list of five global health problems and asked to indicate which two concerned them the most.

Nearly two-thirds (63%) selected global infectious disease as either their first or second choice, while 64% of “elites” indicated that as their first or second choice. Hunger, obesity and nutritional health was either the first or second choice of 59% of the general population of respondents and 61% of the “elites.” HIV/AIDS was one of the top two choices for 32% of the general respondents and 27% of the “elites.”