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Guy Carpenter predicts below average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season


June 23, 2015   by Canadian Underwriter


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Global risk and reinsurance specialist Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies, on Tuesday released a briefing predicting a “below average” 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.

Enduring El Niño conditions and cool sea-surface temperatures are indicative factors of reduced basin activity

According to the briefing, “hurricane activity for the Atlantic Basin is projected to be below average for the 2015 season, although impactful landfalls can occur in any hurricane season, even those of reduced activity.” For the North Atlantic Basin, seasonal outlook providers are expecting tropical activity to fall below the long-term average of 1955-2014, Guy Carpenter said in a press release.

“The enduring El Niño conditions and cool sea-surface temperatures expected in the Atlantic Main Development Region, which encompasses the area of the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Gulf of Mexico, are indicative factors of reduced basin activity,” Guy Carpenter said. “However, the relationship between basin activity and landfalls is volatile and a quiet season does not guarantee safety from a catastrophic hurricane landfall.”

The briefing noted that El Niño conditions do tend to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin, but the 1957 and 1965 seasons were both moderate El Niño years and each witnessed the landfall of a major hurricane (in 1957, Hurricane Audrey, a Category 4 storm, struck the Texas-Louisiana border; in 1965, Hurricane Betsy, another Category 4 storm, made U.S. landfall on the northern Gulf).

Related: NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season in the United States

“Seasonal activity predictions are valuable, but regardless of whether a particular season is expected to be quiet or active, historical experience reminds us that the impact of even a single tropical storm or hurricane landfall can be severe,” said David Lightfoot, head of GC Analytics – Americas, in the briefing. “Tropical Storms Ana and Bill are timely reminders of the importance of hurricane planning and preparation, even during an expectedly quiet season.”

The briefing noted that seasonal outlook providers say that cooler than average sea-surface temperatures seen in the tropical Atlantic region are an indication of a quiet season ahead. “While this indeed may be a quiet year, the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean areas will require close monitoring,” said James Waller, research meteorologist for GC Analytics, in the release. “A single landfalling tropical storm or hurricane can produce wind, surge and inland flood impacts, the severity of which can vary greatly from event to event.”

Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also predicted a below-average 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season. For the hurricane reason, which officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, NOAA predicted a 70% likelihood of six to 11 named storms (winds of 39 miles per hour (mph) or higher)), of which three to six could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including zero to two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).


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