High warming of climate presents challenges for responses to risk: climate panel

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports there are opportunities for effective responses despite a changing climate that creates pervasive risks and challenges that will continue to be posed by high warming.

In a report released Monday, IPCC notes that in many cases the world is ill-prepared for risks from a changing climate. That said, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability also concludes opportunities exist to respond to such risks, although they will be difficult to manage with high levels of warming.

The report – reflecting input from 436 contributing authors and 1,729 expert and government reviewers – details the impacts of climate change to date, the future risks from a changing climate, and the opportunities for effective action to reduce risks.

The Working Group I report was released last September, the Working Group III report will be released in April, and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report cycle concludes with the publication of its Synthesis Report in October 2014.

The report finds that risk from a changing climate comes from vulnerability (lack of preparedness) and exposure (people or assets in harm’s way) overlapping with hazards (triggering climate events or trends). Each of these components can be a target for smart actions to decrease risk, notes a statement from IPCC, the international body for assessing the science related to climate change.

Observed impacts of climate change have already affected agriculture, human health, ecosystems on land and in the oceans, water supplies and some people’s livelihoods. The striking feature of observed impacts is that they are occurring from the tropics to the poles, from small islands to large continents, and from the wealthiest countries to the poorest, the statement adds.

“We live in an era of man-made climate change,” notes Vicente Barros, co-chair of Working Group II. “In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks that we already face. Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future,” Barros says.

IPCC reports that future risks from a changing climate depend strongly on the amount of future climate change. Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe and pervasive impacts that may be surprising or irreversible.

“With high levels of warming that result from continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, risks will be challenging to manage, and even serious, sustained investments in adaptation will face limits,” suggests Chris Field, co-chair of Working Group II.

Governments, firms and communities around the world are building experience with adaptation,” Field points out. “This experience forms a starting point for bolder, more ambitious adaptations that will be important as climate and society continue to change.”

Adaptation can play a key role in decreasing these risks, Barros suggests. “Part of the reason adaptation is so important is that the world faces a host of risks from climate change already baked into the climate system, due to past emissions and existing infrastructure,” he explains.

Adds Field, “Understanding that climate change is a challenge in managing risk opens a wide range of opportunities for integrating adaptation with economic and social development and with initiatives to limit future warming.”