October 4, 2002 by Canadian Underwriter
Hurricane Lili will not be the insurance loss originally feared, predicts California-based Risk Management Solutions.
Originally, when Lili was a category 4 hurricane, 24 hours before landfall, the company’s probability system at www.riskonline.com had predicted mean losses of US$3.2 billion. There was also a 20% probability of losses below US$1 billion at that time.
Now, though, Lili has lost some of her bluster, weakening before landfall in Louisiana to a category 2 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm hit Vermillion Bay, Louisiana at 11 am, October 3.
RMS now estimates Lili will cause less than US$500 million in insured losses.
“Such rapid weakening is not unprecedented close to the Gulf Coast. In the case of Lili, this weakening may be related to thermal disturbances in the Gulf in the wake of Tropical Storm Isidore last week,” says Dr. Michael Drayton, head of the climate hazards group at RMS.