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Insured losses following U.S. blizzard not expected to be high: AIR Worldwide


January 29, 2015   by Canadian Underwriter


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The blizzard that hit the Northeast United States earlier this week – bringing with it high winds, deep snow, coastal flooding and power outages – was far less severe than forecast, with insured losses currently not expected to be high, AIR Worldwide reports.

The blizzard primarily impacted eastern Long Island, southeastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the islands, New Hampshire and Maine, with record and near-record snowfall, high winds and monumental drifts, notes a statement from the catastrophe modelling firm.

“The storm hugged the coast, from eastern Long Island, along southeastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the offshore islands, eastern Massachusetts, and southern New Hampshire, and then moved across Maine into eastern Canada,” Eric Robinson, a scientist at AIR Worldwide, says in the statement. New Jersey, the New York City area, and southwestern Connecticut experienced significantly less snow and wind than predicted.

A snowstorm Jan. 27 that affected New York City and other areas on the United States east coast was far less severe than forecast, says AIR Worldwide.

In anticipation of the storm, AIR reports that schools and colleges, workplaces, local mass transit, interstate rail and bus, and airports were shut down throughout the affected region; there were widespread driving bans, which both limited the number of people stranded and enabled crews to more effectively respond to the storm; and a state of emergency was declared Jan. 27, interrupting public transportation and shutting down many airports in the region.

“New York City saw significantly less snow than predicted due to a track shift in which the system did not move as far west as projected: New York City snow totals ranged from 6.5 inches to 11.4 inches at LaGuardia airport,” Robinson points out.

“Storm snowfall ranged from a few inches to two to three feet,” he notes. Communities west of Boston – which itself received an estimated 27 inches of snow, the sixth heaviest snowfall on record – saw the greatest snowfall, with the National Weather Service reporting 36-inch depths in Auburn, Hudson and Lunenburg. Many parts of Connecticut, New Hampshire and Maine received snowfalls of 20 inches or more, with a few communities topping 30 inches.

“Temperatures well below freezing throughout the impacted region during the storm kept the snow fluffy and light, easing snow removal,” Robinson says.

AIR reports that 10 to 20 inches of snow can lead to loads of roughly 15 to 30 pounds per square foot on flat roofs, although snowdrift can significantly increase loads. “The risk of roof collapse is particularly acute for light metal, long-span roofs (such as on warehouses or hangars). Engineered structures must conform to high load tolerances and damage to these structures would be expected to be less. The roofs of marginally engineered structures (such as small businesses, convenience stores, etc.) can collapse under large accumulations of snow, particularly if their roofs have not been well-maintained.”

In the Northeast, AIR notes, design snow loads are on the order of 20 to 50 pounds per square foot, adding that many old buildings in the Northeast may not meet the current code requirements, which could increase the total damage.

Other building elements – porches, carports, awnings and gutters – often do not receive any specific design attention and are vulnerable to heavy snow loading.

With regard to the winds, gusts reached between 50 to 70-plus miles per hour in affected areas of coastal New England, notes the AIR statement.

Areas of flooding led to structural damage. As well, high tide Tuesday increased flooding in some areas, the seawall was breached in the coastal community of Marshfield, Massachusetts, leading to flooding and evacuation of residents, and high flood waters were reported in parts of Massachusetts.

“Damage reports were mostly along the coast where strong winds and flooding occurred. Power outages reportedly affected more than 10,000 utility customers, with Cape Cod and the offshore islands most heavily affected,” says Robinson.

In Nantucket, the community lost power “due to ice build-up and strong wind gusts up to 78 miles per hour.”


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