Land-falling hurricanes still a real possibility despite near or below average seasonal outlook

A seasonal outlook for near or below average hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin should not reduce the level of preparedness for property owners and reinsurers alike, suggests a report issued Wednesday by Guy Carpenter & Company LLC.

While predictive and historical models can provide guidance, landfalls are always a real possibility and property owners and the (re)insurance industry must be prepared, notes a statement from Guy Carpenter & Company LLC, a global risk and reinsurance specialist and member of Marsh & McLennan Companies.

Citing the uncertainty of estimates by seasonal outlook providers, “the risk of a land-falling hurricane is a serious threat for any tropical season, regardless of seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic Basin at large,” James Waller, PhD, a research meteorologist for GC Analytics, says in the statement.

Guy Carpenter’s briefing on the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season examines factors that influence the severity of any given hurricane season. For the Atlantic Basin, seasonal outlook providers are expecting tropical activity to fall below the long-term average of 1954-2013.

“Warmer waters in the West Atlantic and Caribbean coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the strength and placement of the impending El Niño, warrant a moment of pause for the 2014 season,” Waller cautions.

The expected onset of an El Niño and cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) both serve to suppress hurricane formation and severity, the statement notes.

Factors that influence to what extent the El Niño can suppress hurricanes include how strong the El Niño is and where it is located, Guy Carpenter reports.

But “the existence of an El Niño during a hurricane season does not preclude the potential for a damaging hurricane season,” the statement emphasizes, citing the 2004 season, which was a weak El Niño year, but one that produced nine hurricanes and five United States landfalls.

And while SSTs in the Atlantic MDR indicate moderately cool SSTs over a

sizeable area, upon closer inspection, above normal SSTs are found in an area adjacent to the U.S. East Coast and Florida.

“This implies that while tropical cyclone development may be suppressed for much of the Atlantic, disturbances adjacent to the U.S. mainland and northern Caribbean could find conditions that enable development into hurricanes,” the statement notes. “This, coupled with weaker suppression effects of the El Niño and its location away from the southern U.S. and northern Caribbean, indicates an environment that could still allow storm production and U.S. landfalls.”

Guy Carpenter notes that any hurricane can produce wind, storm surge and inland flood ramifications. “Preparation for hurricane impacts and the resulting disruption to infrastructure should be an ongoing and essential process for homeowners, businesses, government agencies and the (re)insurance industry,” Waller says. “The landfall of one or two hurricanes cannot be ruled out for any season, regardless of predictive models.”