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Less active hurricane season: Colorado State University


June 5, 2009   by Canadian Underwriter


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The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly less active than average, according to Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters.
CSU is predicting roughly five hurricanes for the 2009 storm season, of which 2 will be major (Category 3-5).
In addition, it is forecasting 11 named storms, 50 named storm days, 20 hurricane days and 4 major hurricane days.
The average season has 5.9 hurricanes and 9.6 named storms, according to Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, forecasters at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University.
“The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be slightly below the long-period average,” according to the report, Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2009.
“We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2009 to be approximately 90% of the long-term average.  We have decreased our seasonal forecast from early April.”
Current neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ESNO) conditions are expected to persist or transition to weak El Niño conditions by August-October — the most active portion of the hurricane season, the report notes. If such conditions develop, it would tend to increase the levels of vertical wind shear and decrease the levels of Atlantic hurricane activity.


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