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NOAA forecasts ‘active or extremely active’ 2013 Atlantic hurricane season


May 23, 2013   by Canadian Underwriter


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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday, predicting an active or extremely active storm season this year.

Sandy

For the six-month season, which begins June 1, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there is a 70% likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher).

Of those, seven to 11 could become hurricanes (with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher), including three  to six major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 miles per hour or higher).

That forecast means this year could have well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, the NOAA noted.

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time,” Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA’s acting administrator noted in a statement on the forecast.

Read more: Researchers predict above-average number of major storms for 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

“As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline,” she noted. “Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

Despite the active outlook, the predictions are not a landfall forecast, meaning it doesn’t predict how many storms will hit land or where they will strike, the NOAA noted.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center noted.

“These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa.”

The NOAA also said that this July, it plans to bring online a new supercomputer that can run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model for improved forecasting.

It also said that it has made improvements to its forecast models, data gathering and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure for post-tropical cyclones.

“Also this year, Doppler radar data will be transmitted in real time from NOAA’s Hurricane Operations Center Hurricane Hunter aircraft,” the NOAA noted. “This will help forecasters better analyze rapidly evolving storm conditions, and these data could further improve the HWRF model forecasts by 10% to 15%.”

The U.S. National Weather Service has also made changes to allow for hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly issued, for storms like Sandy that have become post-tropical.  That “allows forecasters to provide a continuous flow of forecast and warning information for evolving or continuing threats,” according to the NOAA.


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