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NOAA predicts below average hurricane seasons for Central, Eastern Pacific


May 27, 2013   by Canadian Underwriter


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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration out of the United States has forecast a below average hurricane season for both the Central and Eastern Pacific regions, in contrast to its prediction of an active Atlantic season.

Alvin

For 2013, the NOAA has forecast a 70% chance of a below-normal season for the Central Pacific, a 25% chance of a near normal season and a 5% change of an above-normal season.

The organization has predicted one to three tropical cyclones to affect the Central Pacific, which sees four to five storms during an average season (including tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes).

“The outlook for a below-normal season is based upon the continuation of neutral El Niño – Southern Oscillation conditions,” the NOAA said. “The Central Pacific Basin also remains on the low activity side of a multi-decadal cycle. Historical records show that this combination of conditions tends to produce a less active hurricane season for the Central Pacific.”

Despite the below-normal prediction, the NOAA is urging residents in Hawaii to be prepared for the season, which runs from June 1 to the end of November.

“I encourage the public to become weather-ready by signing up for weather alerts, developing a family emergency plan, and building an emergency kit before hurricane season begins,” Ray Tanabe, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center noted in a statement. “Just because the season is predicted to be ‘below normal’ does not mean that a single storm cannot have significant impacts.”

For the Eastern Pacific, the NOAA has called for a 70% chance of 11 to 16 named storms, including five to eight hurricanes. One to four of those are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5), the NOAA said.

The NOAA said there is a 55% probability of a below-normal season, a 35% probability of a near-normal season and a 10% probability of an above-normal season.

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season (which runs from May 15 through Nov. 30) has 15 named storms, of which eight become hurricanes and four become major hurricanes. The area has already had one named storm, Tropical Storm Alvin, which developed May 15, the NOAA noted, although peak activity for the season is between July and September.

“Although a below-normal season is most likely this year, we encourage everyone to get prepared for the start of the season and to check the forecast as storms develop,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service, noted.

“It only takes one storm making landfall in your area to make it a bad year for you, regardless of the overall activity predicted in the seasonal outlook. So residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal outlook.”

Image: NOAA’s GOES-15 satellite captured a view of Tropical Storm Alvin on May 16 at 8 a.m. EDT as it continued moving west and away from Mexico. Alvin was the first tropical storm of the year in the Eastern Pacific.
(Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project)


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