NOAA updates Atlantic hurricane season outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States has updated its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, slightly reducing its initial forecast, but still predicting an above-normal number of storms.

There have been four named storms since the season began in June, including Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian.

“Significant activity is expected for the remainder of the season, with an additional 9-15 named storms likely, of which 6-9 are expected to become hurricanes with 3-5 reaching major hurricane status,” the NOAA said Thursday.

Major hurricanes are those classified as Category 3, 4 or 5.

This is a slightly lower forecast from the one provided in late May, just before the season began. The NOAA provided three main reasons for the change:

“1) No hurricanes or major hurricanes formed during June and July; 2) The probability of La Niña developing during August-October is now low; and 3) Many models now have more conservative predictions of hurricane activity.”

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” noted Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

“Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season,” Bell added.

While the agency does not make hurricane landfall predictions, it is urging residents, businesses and government agencies in coastal and near-coastal regions to be prepared for the season.