Patricia-related insured losses to onshore properties in Mexico estimated not to exceed US$200 million

Onshore properties in Mexico escaped major damage when Hurricane Patricia made landfall, with catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide estimating Sunday that insured losses to those properties will not exceed US$200 million.

When at its height earlier, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported Patricia was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in its domain (the Atlantic and East Pacific ocean basins), with wind speed of about 200 mph, AIR Worldwide noted in a statement.

With hurricanes unable to sustain such extreme intensity for long, Patricia made landfall at 6:15 pm Friday about 55 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo in the Mexican state of Jalisco, with maximum sustained winds down to 165 mph.

Still a Category 5 storm, Patricia brought with it powerful winds, torrential rains, and damaging storm surge. But landfall occurred on a relatively sparsely populated stretch of the Jalisco coastline, AIR Worldwide noted.

“Patricia did not make a direct hit on the coastal exposure concentrations of Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo, which experienced much weaker winds and storm surge than were experienced in the vicinity of landfall,” the company reported. It also missed the major city of Guadalajara as it tracked inland.

While residential take-up rates in Mexico are low, commercial take-up rates are significant. Predominant construction types for insured residential buildings are masonry and concrete, AIR Worldwide noted Friday.

In Jalisco, nearest to landfall, roof coverings were peeled off by high winds and damage to non-structural elements such as awnings and signage was common; dozens of small homes were flattened in the fishing village of Chamela; and there was some structural damage to homes and businesses as a result of fallen trees.

“Most of the damage in village was due to the high winds with roof and tree damage, and vegetation stripped off,” risk modelling firm RMS noted in a statement Sunday. “The beach front restaurants took the brunt of the damage from both high waves and winds, many of which are palapa built (open-sided dwellings with thatched roofs,” the company added.

“Severe damage, however, has been limited,” AIR Worldwide reported. A more complete picture of damage will emerge as communications are re-established and surveys are undertaken in mountainous inland locations, it added.

“Mexican government officials estimate that Patricia has damaged between 3,000 and 3,500 houses,” RMS noted Sunday.

“With a minimum central pressure of 879 mb, [Patricia] now holds the record for the lowest pressure of any hurricane on record, passing Hurricane Wilma’s 882 mb in 2005,” AIR Worldwide reported Friday. For its part, the World Meterological Association added Friday that with NHC reporting an estimated minimum central pressure of 880 hPa, “this is comparable to the peak strength of Typhoon Haiyan, which caused devastation in the Philippines in November 2013.”

Patricia was expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of eight to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday, which could produce flash floods and mud slides, the association pointed out at the time.

“Major destruction was also avoided as a result of the storm’s relatively fast forward motion at landfall, about 20 mph (32 km/hr) meaning that torrential rains did not stay in place long enough to generate destructive flooding,” RMS explained in its statement Sunday. “The coastline affected by storm surge also fortunately did not have a large area of shallow water offshore favourable for building up a destructive storm surge,” the company added.

“Although the hurricane looked very impressive in satellite imagery prior to landfall, the wind field was relatively small. Category 5 wind speeds extended just 15 miles from the center of the storm and hurricane-force winds extended outward just 35 miles from the eye,” AIR Worlwide reported Sunday. NHC officially downgraded Patricia to tropical storm status Saturday morning and a tropical low a few hours later.

“Patricia’s storm surge was limited because of its small size, the short amount of time it spent as an intense hurricane prior to landfall, and unfavourable coastal bathymetry. Emergency preparedness measures and evacuations ahead of the storm also reduced the impact of the hurricane,” AIR Worldwide reported.

“Depending on its track, Patricia may also exacerbate flooding in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico,” RMS noted Friday. “These areas have experienced significant rainfall (up to six inches in some parts) throughout the week, creating highly saturated soil conditions, which will be prone to flash flooding and mudslides,” the statement added.

On Sunday, RMS reported “moisture from the remnants of Patricia is combining with a storm system in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing heavy rainfall and triggering flash flooding across already rain soaked areas of eastern Texas to Louisiana.”

The city of Corsicana in Texas “has already received more than 20 inches (500 mm) of rain, which triggered flash flooding and closures of Interstate highway 45. Houston was particularly affected on Saturday night, with many roadways and vehicles reported to be under water in areas of the city,” RMS reported. Flash flood watches include more than 10 million people in Texas and Louisiana.

“The 1959 Mexico hurricane is the only Category 5 hurricane known to have made landfall on Mexico’s Pacific Coast, which came onshore near to Manzanillo, in Colima State in October 1959,” RMS reported. “Unlike Patricia, the hurricane exhibited a larger diameter of hurricane force winds meaning that the impact from the hurricane was severe and widespread,” the company noted.

That event resulted in 40% of the homes in Manzanillo being destroyed, extremely heavy rainfall triggering multiple mudslides, killing hundreds, and causing at least US$2.2billion in damage (trended to 2015) and 1,800 deaths.