Researchers predict above-average number of major storms for 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

The Atlantic hurricane season is likely to have an above average number of major hurricanes making landfall on the eastern United States coastline and Caribbean, according to a prediction from researchers at Colorado State University.

 “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted,” notes the forecast document, released April 10.

 The researchers are estimating that this year will have roughly nine hurricanes, 18 named storms, 95 named storm days and 40 hurricane days, which the forecast defines as “a measure of hurricane activity, one unit of which occurs as four 6-hour periods during which a tropical cyclone is observed or is estimated to have hurricane-force winds.”

They predict that four storms will be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5) and there will be nine major hurricane days. The probability for at least one major hurricane making landfall on the entire U.S. coastline is 72%, compared with a 42% chance predicted at the same time last year.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely,” the researchers also noted.

The full forecast report as of April 10 is available on the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project website. The researchers will release updated predictions later this year.