Smartphones could help predict earthquakes, journal article suggests

Navigational sensors built into consumer devices such as smartphones are capable of detecting surface displacements from moderate and larger earthquakes, a new study has found.

Published last week in the Science Advances journal, the research article, Crowdsourced earthquake early warning, noted that earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost.

However, “common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW,” the study said. Through controlled tests of these devices via crowdsourcing – the process of obtaining needed services by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community – larger earthquakes (magnitude 7 or larger) could be detected, the study suggested. “This economical approach warrants further development, although we do not suggest that it is a substitute where monitoring of smaller, but still potentially destructive, earthquakes is required,” the authors warned.

“Even well-monitored regions such as California, Oregon, and Washington require extensive expansion and upgrade of existing instrumentation, including installing hundreds of new instruments, to implement EEW,” the authors added. “Consequently, seismic EEW is operational in a handful of regions, and only a few of those (Japan, Mexico, and the United States) are incorporating GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) data into their systems. Much of the global population exposed to high seismic risk, especially in poorer countries, does not benefit from EEW. [click image below to enlarge]

In regions where resources cannot be allocated for scientific-grade EEW due to limited financial resources or less frequent occurrence of destructive earthquakes, crowdsourced EEW may be the best option, the study suggested, using the example of large regions of central and south America, the Caribbean, the Pacific rim, and south Asia, which have high seismic hazard, but no early warning capabilities.

“Given the long repeat times between earthquakes and tsunamis and limited budgets with which to take preventive measures, crowdsourcing may be an important part of building, maintaining, and operating warning systems,” the authors suggested. “Crowdsourcing drastically reduces the marginal costs associated with EEW because sensor and communication costs would be assumed by the system’s beneficiaries. Further, the commercial push for ever-greater positioning performance would ensure that a crowdsourced EEW network would always incorporate the latest technology without need for large periodic capital outlays for equipment upgrades.”

As well, by encouraging inclusion of consumer devices into EEW, the devices can be used not only to gather the observations used to issue warnings, but also to deliver these warnings to the public. “This will permit alerts to be customized according to a user’s location and should enhance system efficacy via a feedback process: The more that users engage with the system, the more effective it becomes at reducing the future impact from earthquakes and tsunamis.”