Tropical storm insured losses below average in 2014: Munich Re

Insured losses from tropical storms in 2014, as of November, were much lower than the 10-year average but the United States is likely to have a “more active tornado season” in the spring of 2015, Munich Re reported Monday.

Insured losses from tropical cyclones, by the official end of the hurricane season in late November, are “likely to be around $3 billion,” Munich Re said in a press release. All figures are in United States dollars.

Munich Re’s NatCatService released figures on tropical storms for the 2014 and 2013 seasons, as well as the 10-year average (from 2004 through 2013) and the 30-year average (from 1984 through 2013). Those figures are for tropical storms that caused property damage and were registered with Munich Re.

There were 40 tropical storm events worldwide as of November, 2014, compared to 43 in 2013. The 30-year average was 40 and the 10-year average was 43.

Insured losses this year were $2.7 billion as of November. Insured losses in 2013 from tropical storms were $3.5 billion. The 10-year average was $24 billion while the 30-year average was $10 billion. The 10- and 30-year averages are adjusted for inflation, using the changes in the consumer price index of individual countries.

Overall losses in 2014 are estimated at $20 billion, compared to $32 billion in 2013. The 10-year average if $57 billion and the 30-year average is $30 billion.

The tropical cyclone with the highest insured loss in 2014 was Hurricane Odile, which hit Mexico in July and caused $1.1 billion in insured losses and 2.5 billion in overall losses. That was “the strongest tropical storm to reach Baja California since the beginning of satellite monitoring,” Munich Re reported.

Cyclone Hudhud, which hit India in October, caused $7 billion in overall losses and $530 million in insured losses. Typhoon Ramassun (Glenda), which hit China, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam in July, caused $4.6 billion in overall losses and $250 million in insured losses.

The Atlantic hurricane season was “much more benign in 2014 than it has been on average in the warm phase, which has now lasted 20 years,” Munich Re stated.

“The patterns observed are well in line with what can be expected in an emerging El Niño phase,” stated Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research unit, in a release. “This warm phase of the Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cycle influences various kinds of weather extremes worldwide.”

Munich Re noted the current weak El Niño phase is predicted by scientists to last until around mid-2015.

“If neutral ENSO conditions predominate again from mid-2015, there will no longer be any curtailing effect on hurricanes in the Atlantic,” Höppe stated. “As El Niño conditions are still probable at the height of the tornado season in the USA (March to May), the likelihood of a more active tornado season in the USA is higher.”