U.S. property and casualty rates likely to harden in 2011: Conning Research & Consulting

Underwriting losses in 2010 in the U.S. property and casualty industry will likely spur rate firming in 2011, according to Conning Research & Consulting.
Conning’s Property-Casualty Industry Forecast is based on Conning’s proprietary industry model and analysis of industry drivers, as well as statutory data filings, public insurer results and 2010 catastrophe loss estimates.
“Our expectation is for modest growth in 2010, with net premium growth positive, but weaker than GDP growth,” Clint Harris, analyst at Conning Research & Consulting, said in a release.
“Yet we also anticipate a deterioration in the loss ratio due to eroded premium rate adequacy and expected thinner loss reserve releases. While the overall combined ratio increase is a significant 2.5 points under average catastrophe load, implied return on equity should increase to approximately 7% due to the positive impact of realized capital gains.”