Western countries facing increased terrorism threat: Aon

Canada is among nine developed economies tagged as being at increased terror threat, largely as a result of the risk presented by Islamic extremists, notes a new map released Tuesday by Aon Risk Solutions.

Aon’s Terrorism and Political Violence Map 2015 – produced in partnership with The Risk Advisory Group – highlights global terror threats and is intended to help businesses understand and calibrate the current risk landscape.

The top risks for business include “a progressively uncertain and dangerous geopolitical environment, where the risk of armed conflict is growing amid changing and unstable regional balances of power,” notes a statement from Aon Risk Solutions, the global risk management business of Aon plc.

The developed nations rated at increased risk in the 2015 map are Canada, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Ireland and Norway. “Many of these rises are largely due to increased terrorism threats, most of which stem from the rising influence of Islamic State (ISIS), as well as the ongoing threat from Al-Qaeda affiliates and supporters,” the statement adds.

Although the map shows a net reduction on country risk ratings worldwide – the risk rating was reduced in 21 countries and increased in 13 – Aon reports that political violence and terrorism risks is concentrating and intensifying around a smaller number of countries.

• the 13 countries at increased risk from terrorism and political violence are Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Ireland, Lesotho, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Tanzania and Ukraine (Russia’s military manoeuvres and increase in military spending mean the potential for further armed conflict in the area – Ukraine and Estonia – is no longer unthinkable, yet the overall outlook in the rest of the region is moderately positive); and
• the 21 countries at reduced risk are Albania, Bangladesh, Barbados, Bhutan, Brazil, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Czech Republic, Egypt, Fiji, Guyana, Honduras, Kyrgyzstan, Mauritania, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Panama, Tunisia and Uzbekistan (South America sees the most positive results, with the risk level falling in seven countries across the region, while no countries in Latin America are rated at increased risk in 2015, highlighting the potential for business investment across the continent).

“It is interesting that Europe is at significantly greater risk from the rise of the Islamic State,” Scott Bolton, director of business development and network relations for Aon Risk Solutions, says in the statement.

“Businesses need to understand how they can mitigate against this risk in affected countries, as well as build terrorism insurance programs that align more closely with their exposure,” Bolton continues.

“This data highlights that terrorism and geopolitical uncertainty are risks that businesses cannot ignore – and they are as relevant to developed economies as to emerging markets,” adds Henry Wilkinson, The Risk Advisory Group’s head of intelligence and analysis.

Still, Wilkinson points out, “a high level of risk doesn’t automatically mean that these areas are closed for business. Companies can exploit the opportunities in any market with high quality intelligence and analysis, and a strategy to navigate and manage the risks.”

Risk ratings are based on TerrorismTracker data from the previous 12 months, The Risk Advisory Group’s data and intelligence and consultations between experts from The Risk Advisory Group and Aon, notes the statement. Each country is assigned a score – negligible, low, medium, high or severe – in line with its risk of terrorism, civil unrest and conflict, with the total score being an aggregate of these variables.

Verisk Maplecroft recently reported that 12 capital cities are facing “extreme” terrorism risks that had the potential to threaten business and supply chain continuity. The finding was based on an assessment of 1,300 of the world’s most important commercial hubs and urban centres.

The countries in question include the strategic markets of Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Nigeria and Pakistan, Verisk Maplecroft reported at the time.

In Europe, Paris (97 on the list) “has experienced one of the steepest rises in the ranking, reflecting the severity of the terrorist attack in January 2015. “The risk level in Paris is representative of a wider trend for Western countries, including Belgium, Canada and Australia, where the level of risk in key urban centres is substantially higher than elsewhere in the country, in part due to the significant PR value attached to such high-profile targets by militant Islamist groups.”