Tropical Storm Dolly threatens northeast Mexico with flash floods, high winds

Tropical Storm Dolly, which Willis Re Inc. predicted would make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, is expected to produce heavy rain with “life-threatening flash floods” in northeastern areas of Mexico south of Texas.

The United States National Weather Service predicted Tuesday morning gusts could exceed 90 kilometres per hour after it makes landfall.

“Dolly is the third named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season,” stated Willis Re, the reinsurance intermediary operated by London-based brokerage Willis Group Holdings plc, in a hurricane tracking advisory published the morning of Sept. 2. “Six named storms had occurred by this date last year, but the first hurricane, Humberto, did not occur until mid-September of 2013. The next tropical storm of 2014 will be named Edouard.”

Storm Dolly is expected to have tropical storm status when it makes landfall in Mexico, Willis Re predicted, adding the storm “is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches (130 to 250 mm) with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) across much of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, as well as northern Veracruz, and eastern San Luis Potosi Mexico through Wednesday evening.”

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The rainfall ” is expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.”

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Meanwhile, NWS noted Tropical Storm Dolly was moving west northwest at 14 knots (26 km/h) with maximum sustained winds at 45 knots (83 km/h), gusting to 55 knots (102 km/h). Once it moves inland, the storm will have maximum sustained winds of 40 knots (75 km/h) gusting to 50 knots (93 km/h), NWS stated.

Dolly-2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fourth Tropical Storm. GOES image, 10:15 am, EDT, 9-2-14. http://t.co/R68Z7K5lor pic.twitter.com/gi57tsgrOq

— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) September 2, 2014

From Maclovio Perez: Dolly moves to the Mexican coast. Will land early Wednesday. Showers increase for South Texas. pic.twitter.com/J2zRyVIH15

— KRIS 6 News (@KRIS6News) September 2, 2014

“Seas associated with Dolly will build over much of the (west) central Gulf (of Mexico) … reaching as high as 15 feet,” or 4.6 metres, NWS stated.

Willis Re noted in its advisory that the average year (from 1950 through 2011) had 10.7 tropical storms and 6.2 hurricanes in the North Atlantic (with an average of 2.7 “major” hurricanes a year).

In a report last month, Willis re predicted “below-average hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2014.”

The potential track area of Tropical Storm Dolly. Courtesy of the United States National Weather Service