Aon Benfield flood model covers 98% of the Canadian population with resolution up to 10 metres

Impact Forecasting LLC announced Monday a flood model, for companies insuring properties in Canada, which the firm says has a “combined hazard resolution of 10 metres for the most exposed areas.”

Impact Forecasting, a unit of London-based Aon plc’s Aon Benfield reinsurance intermediary, stated its new flood model for Canada “covers a geographical area representing 98% of the Canadian population.”

The product is scheduled for release June 8, said Paul Cutbush, senior vice president of catastrophe management at Aon Benfield Analytics in Toronto.

Aon Benfield plans to demonstrate the model in June in Montreal June 8, Vancouver June 10 and Toronto June 12 during its Canada Catastrophe Analytics Roadshow.

The model can be used in Aon Benfield’s Elements loss calculation software for catastrophe modeling. The product has a “combined hazard resolution of 10 metres for the most exposed areas and 30 metres for remaining parts of Canada,” Aon Benfield stated in a press release.

The model “incorporates essential Canadian hazard content including local sources of spatial (GeoBase government initiative) and hydrological (Environment Canada and Le Centre d’expertise hydrique du Québec) data,” Aon Benfield added.

Overland flood coverage was generally unavailable on home policies in Canada until this month, when Aviva Canada rolled out its overland water endorsement in Ontario and Alberta. Aviva said in February its endorsement covers losses resulting from the accumulation or run off of surface waters, when water enters the property.

Research from the University of Waterloo “suggests a fundamental lack of coordination between governments and private agencies responsible for flood map data,” wrote professors Blair Feltmate and Jason Thistlethwaite in a 2014 study commissioned by The Co-operators Group Ltd.

On Monday, Aon Benfield said its model “offers a complete view of Canadian flood risk from providing underwriting data that drills down to individual locations while helping insurers to understand the impact of accumulations on their portfolios, to structuring reinsurance cover and fulfilling regulatory and rating agency requirements.”

It “assesses the potential levels of damage based on loss data from Impact Forecasting’s seven other country-specific flood models and Canadian client claims information to reflect local characteristics.”

David Sloan, president and CEO of Aon Benfield Canada, referred in the press release to record floods in southern Alberta in June, 2013 – which caused nearly $2 billion in insured losses and about $5 billion in total economic losses – and to a rain storm in the Toronto area July 8, 2013, which caused about $850 million in insured losses. Those catastrophes rank first and third in natural disasters in Canada by insured losses. The 1998 ice storm ranks second.

“While Southern Alberta and Toronto have diligently been rebuilding their communities following the staggering floods of 2013, our in-house catastrophe experts from across the globe have focused their efforts to develop a flood model for Canada from the ground up,” Sloan stated Monday in the release.

Published reports in 2013 indicated that 126 mm of rain fell at Toronto-Lester B. Pearson International airport July 8, while Environment Canada indicates the normal rainfall for the entire month of July is 74.4 mm. That storm caused sewer backup damage, flooding on major expressways, a major power failure resulting from the flooding of a transformer station and GO Train commuters to be stranded for hours after the Don River rose on to a track.

The previous month, after heavy rain, Alberta declared 27 states of emergencies and several areas were evacuated – including 26 neighbourhoods in Calgary and the entire town of High River.