Risk Management (June 01, 2009)

MUTATED VERSION OF H1N1 POSSIBLE BY END OF THE YEAR: MARSH

Global insurance broker and risk advisor Marsh is warning businesses to be prepared for the possible outbreak of a second, more severe mutation of influenza A (H1N1) later this year.

Toby L. Merlin, M. D., deputy director of the influenza coordination unit at the Centers for Disease Control, participated in a Marsh Web cast related to the recent H1N1 viral outbreak. He said there could be a second wave of disease in late summer or early fall of 2009 that may be different from the current outbreak.

“It could possibly be more severe,” he cautioned. “This virus is quite capable of either mutating, or re-assorting with other circulating viruses to change the nature of the disease it causes.

“People can watch the course of the disease in the southern hemisphere, which might be predictive of disease we’re going to see here.” In Canada, as of press time, there were 805 confirmed cases of H1N1 and one death associated with the flu. In the United States, there were 6,764 confirmed cases of H1N1, resulting in 10 deaths.