2009 hurricane season predicted to have above average activity

The 2009 hurricane season will likely be above average in activity, according to Colorado State University forecasters.
It is estimated the season will have roughly seven hurricanes, three of which will be intense (Category 3-5), and 14 named storms. The average season has 5.9 hurricanes and 9.6 named storms, according to Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, forecasters at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University.
The forecasters expect 70 named storm days (average being 49.1), 30 hurricane days (average being 24.5) and seven intense hurricane days (average is five).
“The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 120% of the long-period average,” according to the report, Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2009. “We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone activity in 2009 to be about 135% of the long-term average.”
The Atlantic has seen a very large increase in major hurricanes during the 14-year period of 1995-2008 (an average of 3.9 per year) as compared to the 25-year period of 1970-1994 (which saw an average of 1.5 per year), according to the report.
“This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is primarily a result of the multi-decadal increase in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) that is not directly related to global sea surface temperatures or CO2 increases,” the report notes. “Changes in ocean salinity are believed to be the driving mechanism.”