6.6 million-plus homes in U.S. at risk of hurricane storm surge damage in 2015: CoreLogic

CoreLogic estimates that the total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of the 6.6 million-plus homes on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts at risk of hurricane storm surge inundation in 2015 is almost US$1.5 trillion.

Released Thursday, CoreLogic’s 2015 storm surge analysis examines risk from hurricane-driven storm surge for homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines of 19 states and the District of Columbia, as well as for 84 metro areas. It considers single-family residential structures, including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins, among other non-traditional home types.

Homes are then categorized among five risk levels: Low (Category 5 storm), Moderate (Category 4-5 storm), High (Category 3-5 storm), Very High (Category 2-5 storm) and Extreme (affected by Category 1-5 storm), notes a statement from CoreLogic, a global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider.

To come to the US$1.5 trillion estimate, the chart below shows that Extreme accounted for US$393,494,752,074 of the total; Very High for US$324,225,419,007; High for US$371,135,087,394; Moderate for US$267,395,972,220; and Low for US$132,090,242,053. [click image below to enlarge]

Specifically, the Atlantic Coast has more than 3.8 million homes at risk of storm surge in 2015 with an RCV of US$939 billion, while the Gulf Coast has slightly less than 2.8 million homes at risk and almost US$549 billion in potential exposure to total destruction damage, the company reports.

The analysis defines RCV as how much is required to rebuild the property, including labour and materials, and assuming worst-case scenario at 100% destruction. It also factors in geographical pricing differences.

Six states account for more than three-quarters of all at-risk homes nationally, CoreLogic reports, with Florida having the highest total number of properties at various risk levels (2,509,812), followed by Louisiana (760,272), New York (464,534), New Jersey (446,148), Texas (441,304) and Virginia (420,052).

The five states with the highest RCV for homes at risk include: Florida (US$491,119,183,016), New York (US$177,398,620,779), Louisiana (US$162,096,659,527) New Jersey (US$126,829,146,685) and Virginia (US$91,049,049,641).

At the local level, five core-based statistical areas rank the highest in both number of homes at risk and total RCV: New York-Newark, NY-NJ-PA; Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL; Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC; and New Orleans-Metairie, LA.

Storm surge is triggered primarily by the high winds and low pressure associated with hurricanes, which cause water to amass inside a storm as it moves across the ocean before releasing as a powerful rush overland when the hurricane moves onshore, CoreLogic reports. “In addition to the property damage and potential lives lost to flooding, the speed and force associated with storm surge waves can significantly increase geographic and economic impact in hurricane disaster areas,” the company statement adds.

“The number of hurricanes each year is less important than the location of where the next hurricane will come ashore,” Tom Jeffery, senior hazard risk scientist for CoreLogic, notes in the statement.

“It only takes one hurricane that pushes storm surge into a major metropolitan area for the damage to tally in the billions of dollars. With new home construction, and any amount of sea-level rise, the number of homes at risk of storm surge damage will continue to increase,” Jeffery cautions.

#Housing Update: CoreLogic: 6.6M homes at risk of hurricane storm surge damage http://t.co/jchahK4zjy #CLT pic.twitter.com/I1XYSIszcH

— Showcase Realty (@ShowcaseRealty) June 4, 2015