Canadian Underwriter

90% chance of below-normal Atlantic hurricane season: NOAA

August 10, 2015   by Canadian Underwriter

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has reported that there is a 90% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.

Satellite image of Subtropical Storm Ana forming off the East Coast. This image was taken by GOES East on May 8, 2015. (Credit: NOAA)

The NOAA updated its 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook last week, saying that the below-normal season is now even more likely than predicted in May, when the likelihood of a below-normal season was 70%.

“Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a statement. “Regardless of our call for below-normal storm activity, people along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should remain prepared and vigilant, especially now that the peak months of the hurricane season have started.”

Two tropical storms already have struck the United States this year, the statement noted. Ana made landfall in South Carolina in May and Bill made landfall in Texas in June.

Related: 2015 Atlantic hurricane season predicted to be below average

The 90% probability of a below-normal season is the highest confidence level given by NOAA since seasonal hurricane outlooks began in 1998. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The outlook now includes a 70% chance of six to 10 named storms, from six to 11 in the initial May outlook

The updated outlook also lowers the overall expected storm activity this season. The outlook now includes a 70% chance of six to 10 named storms (from six to 11 in the initial May outlook), of which one to four will become hurricanes (from three to six in May) and zero to one will become major hurricanes (from zero to two in May). These ranges — which include the three named storms to-date (Ana, Bill, and Claudette) — are centered well below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Forecasters attribute the high likelihood of a below-normal season to three primary factors:

• El Niño has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA’s latest El Niño forecast calls for a significant El Niño to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season;

• Atmospheric conditions typically associated with a significant El Niño, such as strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, are now present. These conditions make it difficult for storms to develop, and they are predicted to continue through the remaining four months of the hurricane season; and

• Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are predicted to remain below average and much cooler than the rest of the global tropics.

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