AIR creates climate-conditioned view of U.S. hurricane risk

At the midpoint of an active 2008 hurricane season, AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) has issued a white paper updating its research on climatological influences on hurricane landfall risk.
In particular, the white paper suggests that, “during years in which [Sea Surface Temperatures] SSTs are warmer than the long-term average, the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts experience more frequent tropical cyclone landfalls.”
The findings also suggest that “tropical cyclone intensity at landfall is influenced by ocean conditions and that the effect varies by coastal region.”
The white paper goes on to explain AIR’s approach to creating a climate-conditioned view of U.S. hurricane risk on the basis of the research findings.
“AIR Worldwide provides two views of U.S. hurricane risk in the form of alternative catalogs of simulated storms for its U.S. hurricane model,” says Dr. Peter S. Dailey, director of research in atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “The standard catalog reflects hurricane risk under average climate conditions, while the Warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) catalog reflects hurricane risk under warmer-than-average ocean conditions.
“These catalogs incorporate the latest scientific research, which has undergone extensive peer review by leading scientists, to provide credible estimates of U.S. hurricane risk.”
AIR’s research indicates the Gulf Coast is likely to experience more frequent landfalls of tropical storms and weak hurricanes.
The pattern is different for the Southeast, which is likely to experience more frequent storms of hurricane and major hurricane strength.
In the Northeast, the relationship between warm SSTs and hurricane landfalls is too weak to draw any firm conclusions.
Overall, the difference (increase) in the mean frequency between the Warm SST catalog and AIR’s standard catalog for U.S. hurricane landfalls is between 5% and 10%.