AIR Worldwide releases winter storm, tropical cyclone models for Canada

AIR Worldwide is expanding its suite of models for Canada with new winter storm and tropical cyclone models, as well as updates to its Canada Severe Thunderstorm Model, meant to provide a more complete view of atmospheric peril risk and account for insurance policy conditions specific to the country.

“AIR is committed to providing the Canadian market with the most advanced tools for assessing potential insured losses from natural catastrophes that affect the entire insurance and risk transfer value chain,” says Rob Newbold, senior vice president of business development and consulting and client services for AIR Worldwide, a Verisk Analytics business.

“To certify the reliability of the vulnerability module in each of AIR’s atmospheric perils models for Canada, AIR scientists and researchers worked closely with regional experts and utilized local data sources, such as Insurance Bureau of Canada, Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction, and Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel at Western Ontario,” the statement notes.

The three models for Canada are currently available in the Touchstone® 3.0 and CATRADER® 17 catastrophe risk management systems, notes AIR Worldwide, which provides risk modelling software and consulting services.

The new winter storm model better captures the effects of damaging winds, winter precipitation (snow, ice pellets and freezing rain), and freezing temperatures found there, as well as indirect damage mechanisms, such as ice damming and subsequent water infiltration into roofs, and ice loading that leads to falling trees and utility lines.

In addition, AIR Worldwide adds, the model includes different manifestations of winter storms across Canada, such as high winds and heavy snowfalls in the west, strong winds over the Prairies, ice storms in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Lowlands, and nor’easters in the Maritime provinces.

The new tropical cyclone model, for its part, effectively captures the effects of damaging winds on insured properties in seven Canadian provinces. “While tropical cyclones often weaken as they track north to Canada, the risk is not insignificant, as storms at these latitudes typically grow in size as they adopt extratropical characteristics and are faster-moving,” AIR Worldwide reports.

Wind intensity computations are based on a storm’s central pressure, size, forward speed and direction. The model also considers the interaction of the storm with the underlying terrain and land cover to more properly calculate damage to onshore properties, the statement adds.

As for the updated severe thunderstorm model, it now accounts for the losses incurred by straight-line winds, hail and tornadoes on insured properties, and helps capture both small and large loss events. “In addition to residential, commercial and auto lines of business, damage functions have been developed for large, complex industrial facilities using a component-based engineering approach,” AIR Worldwide points out.

“[AIR’s] effort begins to fill a gap in Canada for consistent, physically anchored models that act to provide guidance on the impact and risks of major natural disasters,” Dr. Ronald Stewart, a University of Manitoba professor who peer-reviewed the models, says in the statement.