AIR Worldwide updates hurricane model for U.S.

AIR Worldwide Monday announced the availability of its updated hurricane model for the United States, new features of which are meant to help insurers and reinsurers better understand and quantify risk from hurricanes.

As part of the comprehensive update, the catastrophe risk modelling firm reports that features include a new fully hydrodynamic storm surge module that integrates storm parameters with high-resolution elevation data to simulate location-specific storm surge inundation depth and extent. [click image below to enlarge]

The storm surge module incorporates the 30-metre National Elevation Dataset (NED) developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, notes a statement from AIR Worldwide, a Verisk Analytics business. It incorporates regional and seasonal data on tide heights, and contains the most up-to-date data on levees, seawalls, floodgates, pump systems, and other mitigating structures and equipment.

AIR Worldwide points out that storm surge results from a combination of variables, including storm size, strength, speed and path, and tidal heights and coastal geography.

“The steady growth in the value and density of property on the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States is increasing the need for reliable information on storm surge risk,” says Tim Doggett, AIR Worldwide’s assistant vice president and senior principal scientist.

The hydrodynamic storm surge module for the U.S. hurricane model “represents state-of-the-art modeling techniques and the latest research on storm surge hazard to accurately assess risk at very high resolution,” Doggett continues. [click image below to enlarge]

AIR Worldwide reports that estimates of damage from storm surge leverage information on primary building characteristics and a host of secondary characteristics can be entered by the model user

AIR Worldwide reports that estimates of damage from storm surge leverage information on primary building characteristics and a host of secondary characteristics can be entered by the model user. “The model estimates physical damage and time-element losses using damage functions that reflect local building codes and regional design practices, as well as damage survey findings, claims analyses, and engineering research,” the statement adds.

“The highly granular estimates produced by the model can help insurers better understand the risk from hurricane wind and storm surge, supporting improved risk selection, portfolio management and risk transfer decisions,” Doggett adds.

AIR Worldwide’s model has been validated against more than US$6 billion in claims data from client companies for recent hurricanes and more than US$10 billion from AIR’s parent and sister companies, the company reports.

In addition, the vulnerability module incorporates the latest observational data on the impact of square footage on wind losses for large, high-value homes and important updates that reflect the latest findings on the vulnerability of manufactured homes, the statement adds.

The new hurricane model is available in the Touchstone® 3.0 and CATRADER® 17 catastrophe risk management systems.