Aon Benfield forecasting arm introduces new cat scenario models

Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe model development arm of Aon Benfield, announced Monday several new scenario models to generate loss estimates for specific historical or hypothetical events, including storm surge from last fall’s Hurricane Sandy.

The massive flooding in Thailand in 2011 is another scenario included in the new suite of models, through which users can gauge the financial impact of a potential recurrence, Aon says.

Scenarios can also be generated for possible future events based on criteria such as maximum possible magnitudes of a flood or earthquake.

Aon says the scenarios are generated by integrating maps highlighting the extent of the area affected at a given intensity, or footprints, from either Impact Forecasting, insurers and reinsurers or third party organisations such as PERILS.

The scenario models are meant to allow insurers and reinsurers to validate existing models and examine specific events in territories where no models currently exist, the company says.

Companies can also monitor exposure in certain areas and provide more detailed information for reinsurance purchase and claims management, Aon notes.

The new models are available through ELEMENTS 7, Impact Forecasting’s loss calculation tool. The ELEMENTS tool is a “universal catastrophe modelling platform” that can run any model or any footprint for any peril or territory, Aon notes.

Footprints currently available for peril and regional hotspots include:

• U.S.: Superstorm Sandy storm surge footprints by Impact Forecasting (developed by the SLOSH model) and PERILS (produced by SERTIT). In addition, footprints are available for hurricanes Katrina and Ike
• Japan: 15 event scenarios for tsunami, based on events defined by the Japanese government and USGS
• Europe: PERILS windstorm scenario events for Klaus, Xynthia, Joachim and Andrea (produced by the MeteoSuisse, German Weather Service (COSMO-EU) and EuroTempest)
• Flood: Thailand (2011), Switzerland (2000, 2005, 2007), Slovakia (2010), Austria (2002, 2005), Poland (2010)
• Storm Surge flood: Netherlands (1953), Germany (1962, 1976, 1994, 1995, 1999)
• Earthquake: Morocco (Agadir 1960, Al_Hoceima 1994, 2004), Algeria (Boumerdes 2003, Djidjelli 1856, El Asnam 1980), Turkey (Erzincan 1939, Kocaeli 1999, Sultandagi 2002, Van 2011), Israel (Galilee 1837, Safed 1927, Red Sea 1995, Dead Sea 2004) and Kazakhstan (Almaty 1911)