B.C. government launches public consultation on earthquake preparation

In an announcement praised by the Insurance Bureau of Canada, the British Columbia government said Tuesday it plans to invite input from stakeholders on how the province can better prepare for a catastrophic seismic event.

“This emergency management consultation regarding catastrophic seismic events will directly involve all levels of government,” the province stated, adding it will “seek the input and engagement of other stakeholders,” such as individuals, business, adjoining jurisdictions and non-governmental organizations.

“The Property & Casualty insurance industry agrees that it’s time for regional and national conversations on how to prepare for a mega-earthquake, which could happen at any time,” Bill Adams, IBC’s vice president for the western and Pacific region, said in a press release Tuesday. “We look forward to participating in and supporting this important initiative.”

The purpose of the public consultation “is to provide recommendations, through discussion with key stakeholders, on improving the ability of British Columbians to prepare for and respond to a catastrophic seismic event,” the B.C. government stated. “Stakeholder roundtable activities will focus on those regions at highest risk from seismic events. The final report is expected to be submitted to the Ministry of Justice by the end of the year.”

The co-chairs of the review are John Les, a former provincial solicitor general, and Henry Renteria, an emergency management and public safety consultant who was the director of the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services from 2003 to 2009.

Renteria was also director of the City of Oakland Office of Emergency Services in October, 1989, when a magnitute-6.9 quake struck near San Francisco. That quake killed 63 (42 as a result of the collapse of the Cypress Freeway) and caused up to $10 billion in losses, according to the United States Geological Survey.

IBC noted Wednesday that a recent study shows overall economic losses in one earthquake scenario off the coast of B.C. could total almost $75 billion.  That figure is from the Study of Impact and the Insurance and Economic Cost of a Major Earthquake in British Columbia and Ontario/Québec, released last October by AIR Worldwide and commissioned by IBC.

In the western scenario, AIR Worldwide modelled the effects of two earthquakes. One was a Magnitude 9.0 quake at a depth of 11 km under the Pacific Ocean, 75 kilometres off the west coast of Vancouver Island.

That hypothetical event causes a total of $60 billion in direct economic losses to properties and $1.89 billion in direct economic losses to infrastructure in British Columbia. Of the direct property losses, $34.979 billion is to commercial and industrial property, $24.46 billion is to residential property and $527 million is attributed to auto losses. Of the $1.89 billion in direct infrastructure losses, $578 million is to road transportation, $318 million is to airports,  $300 million is to electricity/telecom and $226 million is to gas pipelines.

Those losses “comprise the losses due to damage to buildings, their contents and the direct business interruption due to the immediate reduction or cessation of production in the damaged property or the loss of service,” AIR Worldwide stated in the study. On top of that, AIR Worldwide modelled indirect losses “due to interconnectivity between the economic sectors and the infrastructure.”

Those indirect economic losses are modelled at $21.385 billion “without resilience” and $4.103 billion “with all the sources of resilience.”

AIR Worldwide noted that road access to Vancouver International Airport would be cut off “during the first few critical days after the earthquake as all of the bridges leading to it are impacted.” This is because the island on which the airport is located is at “moderate risk” of liquefaction.

In the City of Vancouver, damage to “well-built modern buildings” would be “relatively slight” but the suburbs of Richmond, Delta and Surrey “will be worse hit” because they are “built on silty and sandy sediments that shake more than the rock on which Vancouver itself is constructed.”

In downtown Victoria, there could be business interruption for “a few months,” AIR Worldwide noted, while frame houses in Victoria “will move on their foundations if not bolted down.”

Meanwhile, the public consultation announced March 11 by the B.C. government is intended, among other things, “to identify key issues and opportunities with respect to response plans, capacities, and processes, and provide recommendations for improvements as required.”

The government is also aiming “to determine if the roles and responsibilities are clearly set out and understood by all levels of government, and if necessary, to recommend methods to improve clarity and understanding,” and to seek input on “risk assessment processes, relevant to catastrophic seismic events, and provide recommendations for improvements as appropriate.”