Below-average Atlantic hurricane activity predicted

Forecasters expect a relatively mild season for Atlantic hurricanes this year because of cooler tropical waters and the potential development of El Niño conditions.

Weather experts at Colorado State University (CSU) predict 10 named storms during hurricane season, which starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Four storms are expected to be major hurricanes (sustained winds of 178 km-h or more).

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high,” said Philip Klotzbach of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. “We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

El Niño, which results from an abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, will likely create “conditions less conducive for storm formation,” according to the CSU forecast.

The study uses 29 years of historical data and global oceanic and atmospheric conditions. It estimates a 42% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline, compared to the long-term average probability of 52%.

“Despite this below-average forecast, we remain – since 1995 – in a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so,” said CSU project founder William Gray.