Greater chance of above-normal hurricane season: NOAA update

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that an active Atlantic hurricane season, with six named storms so far this year, will likely be joined by at least as busy a second half of 2012.

An updated outlook “still indicates a 50% chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35% and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15% from the initial outlook issued in May,” reports NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, notes in the outlook, released Aug. 9.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the June 1 to November 30 season, the outlook projects 12 to 17 named storms, five to eight hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes. This compares to the May outlook of 15 named storms, four to eight hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.

The latest outlook includes activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie and Florence, and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto. While named storms achieve top winds of 39 mph or higher, hurricanes have top winds of 74 mph or more, and major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) have winds of at least 111 mph.

NOAA seasonal climate forecasters note that El Niño – which strengthens vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and suppresses storm development – will likely develop in August or September.

“We shouldn’t let our guard down,” Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, says, adding that hurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding. “Even people who live hundreds of miles from the coast need to remain vigilant through the remainder of the season.”