Hurricane activity expected to be “above-normal” in 2010: TSR

Hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is anticipated to be 55% above the long-term (1950-2009) norm, according to storm modeler Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
This above-normal level is expected to be even higher if La Niña develops during the second half of the year, according to TSR Pre-Season Forecast for 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Activity.
The report says hurricane landfall activity in the United States in 2010 could possibly register in the top third of all historic activity.
Three main climate factors will determine the level of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, the report says.
• the speed of trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic;
• sea temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and the sign; and
• the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
According to TSR, the pre-season forecast for the Atlantic basin is as follows:
• a 77% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, an 18% probability of near-normal season and a 5% chance of below-normal season;
• 16 tropical storms, including eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes;
The outlook for U.S. landfall activity calls for:
• a 74% probability of above-normal activity, a 19% likelihood of near-normal season and a 7% chance of below-normal season; and
• five tropical storm strikes on the United States, including two hurricanes.