Hurricane season to mirror normal averages: Forecast

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season should be close to long-term norms, although the U.S. is “overdue” for a major landfall strike, notes a study released today by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

The climatological research group, which is backed by Aon Benfield, RSA and Crawford & Company, is forecasting 13 tropical storms, six of which will develop into hurricanes and three into intense hurricanes. TSR is also predicting a slightly above average chance of U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

“At present, the main climate indicators point to the 2012 hurricane season being close to norm,” said professor Mark Saunders of TSR. “However, uncertainties remain and we are overdue U.S. landfalling hurricane strikes. Only one hurricane (Irene) has struck the U.S. in the last three years and no major hurricane has struck the U.S. since Wilma in 2005… Nature has a habit of correcting herself.”

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1. Catastrophe modelling firm Eqecat recently noted that 2012 is the first year on record that tropical storms had formed in both the Atlantic (Alberto) and eastern Pacific (Aletta) before the official start of their respective seasons. Neither storm was expected to make landfall, with Tropical Storm Alberto downgraded to a depression May 22.