Lloyd’s results forecasts better than expected

Despite the record 2005 hurricane season, several Lloyd’s syndicates are releasing results forecasts ahead of market expectations, Lloyd’s has announced.
The news comes in the wake of last year’s devastating hurricane season, which was widely expected to have a huge impact on the market.
Amlin indicates its result for the year ended Dec. 31, 2005 will be materially ahead of what was expected. It is anticipating a group pre tax profit of not less than GBP175 million (CDN$348.9 million).
In addition, Amlin reports that, although the 2005 year of account for syndicate 2001 is at an early stage of development, it forecasts a profit of 1.5% to 6.5% of its GBP850 million (CDN$1.659 billion) capacity. The 2005 windstorm losses are reserved at 121.3 million (CDN$241.9 million), net of reinsurance, or 14.3% of capacity.
Charles Philipps, chief executive of Amlin, said: “Yet again, the benefits of our diversity, approach to risk management and high quality team has resulted in excellent performance, even after the costs of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.”
Chaucer is also expecting a healthy 2005. Chief Underwriting Officer Bob Stuchbery says initial 2005 forecasts are encouraging. Chaucer forecasts that its result for syndicate 1084, which suffered hits on its marine and property accounts due to the hurricane season, would be in the range of a 5% loss to a 5% profit on its capacity of GBP400.2 million (CDN$789.1 million), while its nuclear syndicate, 1176, would record a similar result due to two significant losses in the final quarter of 2005.
Meanwhile, Wellington Underwriting has estimated its consolidated loss before tax for the 12 months ending Dec. 31, 2005 will be between GBP25 million (CDN$49.9 million) and GBP30 million (CDN$59.8 million) ahead of market expectations. It is forecasting a loss of between 12-23% for syndicate 2020 for 2005 on capacity of GBP730 million (CDN$1.455 billion).
However, the company said that trading in 2006 had been good, with average rate increase of 11% for new and renewal business written during January 2006. Cathedral Underwriting has announced it expects to make an underwriting profit of about 13.7 million (CDN$27.3 million) on its managed syndicate 2010.
The net impact of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma combined on the 2005 account was said to be equivalent to around 17% of capacity. But Cathedral declined to issue a formal preliminary forecast for 2005 on the grounds that the year “remains heavily on risk.”