Military pressure forcing al-Qaida to consolidate forces outside of the U.S.: Aon Risk Map

International counter-terrorism efforts appear to be stifling the ability of terrorist groups to mount significant attacks on the scale of those of Sept. 11, 2001, according to the 2010 Aon Terrorist Threat Map.
Aon Crisis Management, a business practice of Aon Corporation, issues the annual map.
al-Qaida claimed responsibility for flying several hijacked airliners into U.S. landmarks such as the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2010, killing at least 5,000 people.
“Since 9/11, it is apparent that al-Qaida has been unable to find the momentum it needs to mount an operation of similar scale or impact,” Paul Basset, CEO of Aon Crisis Management, said in a statement about the findings of the risk map. “In part, this can be attributed to the commitment shown by governments to tackle international terrorism on many levels, from military to financial.
“But we remain concerned that terrorists will seek to achieve mass casualties, perhaps preferring swarm tactics of the kind used in Mumbai in November 2008.”
According to Aon’s analysis, partly as a result of U.S.-led military initiatives in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, “al-Qaida in particular is being forced to focus on building its networks in traditional conflict zones.”
As they get pressured in these more traditional zones, however, look for jihadist groups to expand their reach into areas such as northern and eastern Africa, including Algeria, Mali, Somalia and Yemen, the risk maps warns.
And since terrorist organizations are becoming more tactically innovative, Aon has given the United States itself an ‘Elevated’ risk assessment (two categories below the highest risk categories of ‘High’ and ‘Severe’).
“2009 and 2010 have been years of tactical innovation for terrorist groups,” Basset observed. “During the closing months of 2009, we saw two attempts to carry out underwear bombings, a recent innovation intended to subvert airport-style security measures.
“We have also noticed an increasing trend for suicide bombers who do not fit an expected profile. In the U.S., for example, a blonde-haired, blue-eyed female Muslim convert allegedly threatened to carry out an assassination.”
Access to Aon’s interactive 2010 Terrorism Threat Map and hard copies can be requested via http://www.aon.com/terrorismmap