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Mortality rate of next pandemic will be lower than that of 1918 Spanish Flu


April 16, 2007   by Canadian Underwriter


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Pandemic risk is pretty much the same as always, even though it has disappeared from the medias radar, according to a report by Munich Re.
Although the threat of a pandemic this winter had mainly disappeared from the media due to the almost complete absence of instances of bird flu in Europe, experts are largely in agreement that the next pandemic is sure to come, Munich Re noted in its recent publication, Topics. The only question [is] when and how extensive it will be.
As opposed to natural hazards, there are insufficient and no fully reliable statistical data as regards the pandemic scenario.
Munich Re said it regards itself as well prepared for the possible outbreak of a pandemic. The company says its experts have been analyzing the impact of a pandemic on the company for years.
The conclusion drawn in the current issue of Topics (1/2007) is that today, due to medical and technical advances, the mortality rate in the event of a pandemic would be much lower than in the past certainly below that of the Spanish Flu, which claimed between 25 and 50 million lives worldwide in 1918, Munich Re concluded. On the insurance side, Munich Re is no more exposed than in the case of larger natural catastrophes.
Munich Re noted that on the investments side, it is assumed that a pandemic along the lines of that outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO) would impact the global economy and the capital markets only for a certain period of time.


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