P&C insurers profits to decline through 2008

Property casualty insurers are expected to experience overall industry underwriting profit in 2006, matching the results of 2004, according a recent report from Conning Research and Consulting, Inc.
The Conning Research says its forecast report, entitled “Property-Casualty Forecast & Analysis by Line of Insurance, 2005-2008,” reports on 2005 preliminary results for the industry and forecasts results for the property-casualty industry and its top lines of business through 2008.
“Analysis of 2005 results for the industry shows a remarkable consistency in profitability by line of business, aside from the effects of catastrophes,” Stephan Christiansen, director of research at Conning Research & Consulting, Inc., says. “Profitability continues through 2006, but slowing premium growth, rising loss costs and accumulating surplus will take their toll and the industry will again show combined ratios above 100% in 2007 and 2008.”
The study identifies conditions that are “clouding our 2006-2008 forecasts,” according to Christiansen. In addition he says although still somewhat volatile, market conditions are becoming more price-competitive outside of catastrophe-prone areas.
“This is stimulated by surplus accumulation, strong loss reserves and strong cash flow,” Christiansen says. “The projection also reflects an expectation for heightened catastrophe losses, but below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Increased pricing for coastal exposures, and higher costs and reduced availability of reinsurance are helping to moderate these premium trends through 2008. Overall, we expect ROEs will slowly subside, falling from 9.2% in 2005 to 7% by 2008.”