Severe flu pandemic could lead to US$683-billion economic loss

A severe pandemic flu outbreak could result in the second-worst recession in the United States since World War 2, according to a March 2007 report by Trust for America’s Health (TFAH), entitled “Pandemic Flu and Potential for U.S. Economic Recession.”
The report found a pandemic flu could cause a 5.5% drop in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), and lead to a US$683-billion loss.
States with high levels of tourism and entertainment could be the hardest hit, the report says.
Nevada’s economy could face the biggest percent decline with a GDP loss of 8.08%, followed by Hawaii, which could experience a 6.6% loss. Six states could suffer losses over 6% (Nevada, Hawaii, Alaska, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Louisiana).
TFAH has created a model to assess the potential losses each state could face during a severe pandemic. Based on estimates from financial and economic experts, TFAH examined the impact of a pandemic on 20 different industries, trade, and worker productivity.
The model also incorporates predictions from experts of how consumer demand for products and services could drop in a number of industries. For instance, according to estimates, tourism, entertainment, and food services could experience an 80% decline, while agriculture, construction, retail trade, and finance and insurance could face a 10% loss in demand, the report says.